April 2026 Baseline 2017–2024 · 250m
Carbon Opportunity · Murang'a, Kenya

43 million tonnes
of verified carbon
already in the ground.

GreenScope has mapped, measured, and quantified the carbon stored in Murang'a County's 92,000 hectares of smallholder agricultural land. Three sub-counties are ready for Phase 2 deployment today.

BCR Methodology Target
ICROA Standard Pathway
✓ IPCC Tier 2
⚑ Phase 2 Ready
43.2M
tCO₂e stored
90% CI: 20.4M – 66.0M tCO₂e
23,628
ha Zone A priority
Highest confidence · Invest first
±32%
total uncertainty
IPCC 2006 analytical propagation
Priority Zone Map
Kangema 47.5% Zone A Kigumo 41.3% Zone A Gatanga 28.6% Zone A Mathioya Kiharu Kandara Maragwa N ↑
Zone Classification
Zone A — Invest Now
Zone C — Improve
Monitor
Revenue Calculator
Phase 2 Revenue Potential
KACP Benchmarks
Carbon Price $20 / tCO₂e
Scenario Base — 0.8 tC/ha/yr
Conservative
0.5 Base
0.8 Optimistic
1.2
Zone A23,628 ha priority land
Period5-year crediting
BasisKACP field benchmarks
5-Year Revenue
$7M
346,540 tCO₂e
Range
$3M – $12M
Sub-county Investment Ranking
Sub-countyTotal tCO₂eZone A Zone A ShareSOC SignalAction
Kangema9,051,6847,807 ha47.5%
7.76 tC/haINVEST
Kigumo7,234,1466,363 ha41.3%
7.72 tC/haINVEST
Gatanga7,288,8715,387 ha28.6%
7.91 tC/haINVEST
Kandara4,034,9611,539 ha11.4%
6.34 tC/haMONITOR
Mathioya5,748,7471,087 ha8.5%
3.74 tC/haMONITOR
Kiharu5,405,803958 ha5.0%
5.02 tC/haMONITOR
Maragwa4,435,226484 ha2.4%
6.13 tC/haMONITOR
From measurement to verified credits.
Phase 1 measured the carbon. Phase 2 proves who put it there and issues them credits for it.
STEP 01
Farmer Registration
Engage Zone A farms in Kangema, Kigumo, Gatanga. Build the practice registry.
STEP 02
Soil Sampling
50 soil cores across Zone A. Lab verification cuts uncertainty from ±32% to ±10–15%.
STEP 03
Attribution
Rerun carbon model with farmer practice data. Verify additionality. Submit to BCR.
STEP 04
Credit Issuance
Credits issued pending BCR verification. USD 4–10M distributed to registered farmers over 5 years.
Murang'a County · Agricultural Carbon Survey
Your land stores
carbon value.
GreenScope has mapped every hectare of agricultural land in Murang'a County. Here is what it means for your farmers and what happens next.
43.2M
tCO₂e Stored
92,329
ha Agricultural Land
~180K
Farming Households
USD 7M
Base Revenue Potential
What Zone Is Your Land?
Zone A — Invest Now
23,628 ha
Highest carbon signal. Field teams deploy here first. Kangema, Kigumo, Gatanga dominate.
Zone B — Validate
22,721 ha
Good carbon potential. Practice verification needed before credits can be claimed.
Zone C — Improve
42,239 ha
Declining vegetation signal. Introducing regenerative practices creates the clearest credit case.
Zone D — Monitor
27,347 ha
Stable agricultural land. Annual satellite monitoring. Lower immediate priority.
Sub-county Breakdown
Kangema
INVEST FIRST
Total Carbon
9.1M tCO₂e
Zone A
7,807 ha
Zone A Share
47.5%
Kigumo
INVEST FIRST
Total Carbon
7.2M tCO₂e
Zone A
6,363 ha
Zone A Share
41.3%
Gatanga
INVEST FIRST
Total Carbon
7.3M tCO₂e
Zone A
5,387 ha
Zone A Share
28.6%
Kandara
MONITOR
Total Carbon
4.0M tCO₂e
Zone A
1,539 ha
Zone A Share
11.4%
Mathioya
MONITOR
Total Carbon
5.7M tCO₂e
Zone A
1,087 ha
Zone A Share
8.5%
Kiharu + Maragwa
MONITOR
Total Carbon
9.8M tCO₂e
Zone A
1,442 ha
Zone A Share
~4%
What This Means for Murang'a Farmers
🌱
Carbon is already there
Murang'a farmers have been building soil carbon for generations through agroforestry. GreenScope has measured it.
💰
Phase 2 unlocks payment
Once practices are verified through field visits and soil sampling, farmers receive payments for the carbon their land stores.
📍
Start with three sub-counties
Kangema, Kigumo, and Gatanga have the strongest signal. Success here scales to the full county.
Phase 2 Action Plan

Four steps from measurement to farmer payment.

Q3
Farmer Registration
Visit Zone A farms in Kangema, Kigumo, Gatanga. Record practices and farm sizes.
Q3
Soil Sampling
50 soil cores across Zone A. Lab analysis confirms satellite estimates.
Q4
Attribution
Rerun carbon model with farmer data. Verify additionality. Submit to BCR.
Q1'27
Credit Issuance
Credits issued pending BCR verification. Revenue distributed to registered farmers.
Methodology Overview · April 2026
GreenScope dMRV — Hybrid Tier 2 System
A hybrid Tier 2 MRV system combining process-based SOC modelling (RothC 26.3) with remote sensing-derived biomass scaling, designed for smallholder agroforestry systems under data constraints. Implemented at 250m resolution in Google Earth Engine following FAO GSOCseq methodology.
Target: BioCarbon Standard (BCR)
ICROA Standard Pathway
IPCC Tier 2
FAO GSOCseq
Murang'a County, Kenya
CARBON STOCK
43.2M
tCO₂e
90% CI:
20.4M – 66.0M tCO₂e
Pipeline Status — 7 Modules Complete
⚙
preprocessing.js
✓ v3.0 · Stack confirmed
🗺
land_cover.js
✓ v3.1 · 74.3% accuracy
🌱
spinup_export.js
✓ Anchored · CF ~0.77
♻
carbon_estimation.js
✓ v2.0 · RothC 96-month
±
uncertainty.js
✓ ±32% · 90% CI
⟳
causal.js
✓ Complete · Phase 2 pending
◎
decision_layer.js
✓ 4 zones · KACP revenue
▷
Phase 2
⚑ Field validation pending
Key Accuracy Metrics
Classifier Accuracy
74.3%
Kappa 0.675 · RF 50 trees · Benchmark: Mugo et al. 2023
AF Producer Accuracy
100%
48 validated training points · 3 geographic zones
Net Agricultural Area
92,329 ha
Area-adjusted · ±14,788 ha 95% CI · Histosol excluded
Carbon Density (p50)
81.5 tC/ha
Sanity check: PASSED · Expected range 33–115 tC/ha
SOC Change 2017–2024
+4.56 tC/ha
Median · 90% CI: ±2.02 tC/ha · Positive accumulation
Total Uncertainty
±32%
1σ quadrature · SOC dominates at 71% of variance
Uncertainty Breakdown
SourceU (1σ)U (%)Variance
Area (Olofsson 2014)0.0828.2%6.5%
SOC — RothC0.26926.9%70.7%
AGB — RECI0.15315.3%22.8%
Total0.32032.0%100%
SOC model sensitivity dominates at 71% of variance. 50 soil samples in Zone A would reduce U_SOC from 27% to ~10–15%, cutting total uncertainty by ~40%.
Methodology Summary
SOC ModelRothC 26.3 · 20yr spin-up + 96-month forward · SoilGrids anchored
AGBRECI scaled to 24.2 tC/ha · Carsan et al. 2023 · Cap 37.6 tC/ha
Carbon InputMIAMI NPP model · Cropland 25% · Agroforestry 33% of NPP
AreaOlofsson et al. 2014 area correction · 71.8% adjusted accuracy
UncertaintyIPCC 2006 Vol.1 Ch.3 quadrature · Independence assumed
ClimateCHIRPS v3 rainfall · ERA5-Land temperature + PET
Resolution250m · Sentinel-2 SR Harmonised · 2017–2024
StandardBioCarbon Standard (BCR) — target methodology · ICROA pathway
📄
Full methodology brief, uncertainty documentation, and literature citations available on request. Contact GreenScope Analytics.
Data Sources & Key References
SATELLITE DATA
Sentinel-2SR Harmonised · 403 images
CHIRPS v3Daily rainfall · 2017–2024
ERA5-LandTemperature + PET daily
SOIL & LAND DATA
SoilGridsPoggio et al. 2021
KENSOTERBatjes & Gicheru 2004
WorldCoverESA 2021 · Training data
KEY LITERATURE
RothCColeman & Jenkinson 1996
AreaOlofsson et al. 2014
AGBCarsan et al. 2023